Shell has released their third Scenario ‘Sky’ on 26th March 2018, in addition to their two ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios. Sky includes some important messages about hydrogen transport and the potential role of cities in delivering this transformation:
- Success: New energy systems emerge. Onshore and offshore hydrogen electrolysis systems also begin to emerge around the world in Sky. Initially, they make use of the growing off-peak surplus of electricity from renewable sources, but later become fully integrated base-load systems. As a result, after 2040, hydrogen emerges as a material energy carrier, steadily growing to account for 10% of global final energy consumption by the end of century. Asoil and gas use falls over time in Sky, redundant facilities are repurposed for hydrogen gas storage and transport. An immense build-out of electricity networks and hydrogen pipelines ensures secure and affordable electricity and hydrogen supply, which stimulates switching across sectors, particularly in transport and industry.
- Success: Governments step up the pace. In Sky, governments around the world implement legislative frameworks to drive efficiency and rapidly reduce CO2emissions, both through forcing out older energy technologies and through promoting competition to deploy new technologies as they reach cost effectiveness. For example, at the national and sub-national level, governments speed up the energy transition by adapting power markets to new renewable technologies and putting a meaningful price or constraint on carbon emissions from conventional thermal generation. Legislation in many jurisdictions forces grids towards100% renewable energy by the 2040s.Appliances, commercial and residential buildings, and personal transport are all targeted with aggressive efficiency or emission standards. The creation of low-emission zones by city authorities forces older vehicles off the road.
- A successful transport revolution. By 2020, the foundation has been created for a revolutionary transformation of the transport system. In Sky, this transformation occurs more rapidly than many expect; as early as 2030, more than half of global car sales are electric, extending to all passenger cars by 2050. Passenger electric vehicles reach cost parity with combustion engine cars by 2025. By 2035, 100% of new car sales are electric in the EU, US, and China, with other countries and regions close behind. One reason is that in some prosperous large cities, workers enjoy the freedom and convenience that the fleets of autonomous electric vehicles provide. Another reason for the rapid increase of electric vehicles has to do with the exciting new options being offered. For example, in Sky, a standardised chassis design emerges in combination with battery or fuel-cell (FCEV) architecture, being shipped in almost flatpack form to local design companies for bespoke body fabrication using 3D printing techniques.
Further information can be found at: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html